What a perfect offseason could look like for the St. Louis Blues (2024)

There’s a difference between “perfect” and “fantasy land.”

Yes, Blues general manager Doug Armstrong could pull a rabbit out of his hat and make the Buffalo Sabres’ Jack Eichel a star with the St. Louis Blues, but in looking at the offseason ahead and how it might play out, we’re going to focus on developments that are a little more realistic.

It could be a contract extension, a free-agent signing, an injured player returning to health. It could be anything, but if these 10 things happen, Armstrong and the Blues would be in the best shape possible when the 2021-22 season begins.

1. Jaden Schwartz re-signs at a reasonable cap hit

Jaden Schwartz may never top the career-high 28 goals he scored in 2014-15 — heck, he may never score 25 goals again. But he can still contribute offensively, he’s extremely responsible defensively, and let’s not forget that the Blues are light on established left wingers.

So while Schwartz, 29, may not be a $6 million-a-year player, keeping him could be worthwhile if the Blues can re-sign him at a reasonable price. But what’s worthwhile?

He’s coming off a five-year, $26.8 million deal, which had a $5.35 million annual average value (AAV). That AAV ranked No. 32 in the NHL among left wingers last season, and while his offense was down, his 21 points still ranked 23rd out of those 32, and let’s not forget he missed 16 games with an oblique injury.

There are currently 25 left wingers scheduled to make $5.35 million-plus next season, although that number will increase when free agency opens. So if the Blues can get Schwartz somewhere in the neighborhood of his expiring AAV, or even slightly less if they give him a lengthier term, it could make sense.

2. Another left winger is added in a signing or trade

Not only did Schwartz fail to produce last season, but as mentioned, there is not much behind him on the Blues’ depth chart at left wing. Schwartz scored six five-on-five goals last season, and the trio of Sammy Blais (eight), Zach Sanford (six) and unrestricted free agent Mike Hoffman (five) combined for another 19, with some of those scored playing other positions.

So ideally, the Blues would re-sign Schwartz and bring in another free agent, such as Colorado’s Brandon Saad (coming off a contract with a $6 million AAV), Edmonton’s Ryan Nugent-Hopkins ($6 million AAV) or the New York Islanders’ Kyle Palmieri ($4.65 million AAV).

But what if Schwartz decides to hit the free-agent market? Could the Blues go after one of the top free-agent wingers, such as Boston’s Taylor Hall ($8 million AAV) or Colorado’s Gabriel Landeskog ($5.6 million), who could command $8 million? There’s no guarantee either would sign in St. Louis, and even if they would, Armstrong would have to decide whether the Blues are benefited more from high-profile help or from adding depth at the position.

The Blues could go the trade route, but that would be expensive, too. Boston’s Jake DeBrusk could be available, but he’s due $3.675 million and had just five goals and 14 points in 41 games last season. Then you have Calgary’s Matthew Tkachuk, the St. Louisan who everyone here wants to come home. But he would cost a lot of assets, not to mention he’ll make $7 million in the final year of his deal and then require a raise.

3. Mike Hoffman re-signs at a good price and with a defined role

I’m not going to take a definitive side and say the Blues should re-sign Hoffman. He wasn’t seen as a great fit last season, so what’s changed?

Well, what changed was that the Blues finally put Hoffman on the No. 1 power play down the stretch, and he was incredible, perhaps saving their season. What’s also changed is that Hoffman, who was a healthy scratch three times and expected to be dealt at the trade deadline, would consider re-signing in St. Louis. That may speak more to the salary cap staying at $81.5 million cap next season and his options being limited, but either way, it’s a scenario that could play out much differently than anyone expected a few months ago.

But in order for the Blues to bring Hoffman back, they’d have to offer a multi-year deal with an AAV of $5-plus million. And if they’re going to make that type of commitment to the pending UFA, they’d have to give him more five-on-five more minutes in a more prominent role. You can pay a guy $4 million, like the Blues did last season, and play him on the power play and give him 13 minutes per game on the third line. But you can’t do that if you pay him what it’s probably going to cost to keep him.

Would the Blues be comfortable with that idea? It doesn’t mean Hoffman is guaranteed to get top-six minutes regardless of his effort. But these negotiations shouldn’t even be happening if the sides aren’t on the same page.

4. A big defenseman who can skate is added

When I wrote about the Blues’ 10 offseason priorities in May, I brought up the idea of having more size on defense. Some readers said I was suggesting they get bigger and slower, so I’m glad to have this chance to further explain.

If Colorado’s Cale Makar is available, grab him, but I don’t think the Norris Trophy finalist will be. I’m being facetious, but the point is if you can find a puck-moving skater who can control the game, yes, by all means, get him. But where is that type of player available around the league? And unless that player is a healthy Colton Parayko, the Blues don’t have one on their roster. You can say prospect Scott Perunovich, but he’s still unproven and coming off shoulder surgery.

So what happens when the Blues can’t get the puck out of the zone is they get hemmed in by opponents, who have forwards willing to go to the front of the net. And what the Blues don’t have are defensem*n who can take up space and protect that area.

Dallas’ Jamie Oleksiak, a pending UFA, fits that description at 6-foot-7, 255 pounds, and what separates Oleksiak from the prototypical big man is that he can skate. He’s played the past 1 1/2 seasons with Miro Heiskanen, and last season the left-shot defenseman had six goals and 14 points. He had a $2.1 million cap hit in the final year of his deal with the Stars, and they want him back, but perhaps the Blues can pry him away.

5. Colton Parayko and Oscar Sundqvist get healthy

There’s definitely a segment of Blues fans who have bid Alex Pietrangelo good riddance regardless of how good he looks in the playoffs for Vegas. But for those still frustrated he got away, you probably need to give Parayko a chance to get healthy.

Parayko may never be Pietrangelo, but after playing in just 32 games because of a significant back injury last season, he deserves a chance to develop into that role. The good news is the Blues were hopeful that offseason surgery wasn’t needed, so following a summer of rest and rehab, we should find out next season if Parayko is capable.

Meanwhile, the Blues also need center Oskar Sundqvist back in their lineup. He missed the second half of last season with a torn ACL, and because he was going to be out anyway with the knee injury, it’s believed that he also had hip surgery for an injury that occurred in 2019-20.

On Monday, Sundqvist told me that he’s feeling great post-surgery and getting himself back in shape,“so that I can be ready hopefully when the season starts. We don’t know that yet, but I won’t miss a lot of games.”

6. David Perron signs an extension

David Perron has one year left on his four-year, $16 million contract, so he’ll be eligible for an extension this offseason. Getting that done this summer won’t do anything to help the Blues in 2021-22, but at least they’ll have him locked up.

How important would that be? Well, Perron had 19 goals and 58 points in 56 games this season, which translates to 28 goals and 85 points in an 82-game season. That would match his career-high in goals, which was set eight years ago, and would be a career high in points by 19.

The Blues have holes that need to be filled, no doubt, but hanging onto one of their best players should be a priority. Plus, with Perron’s affinity for St. Louis and his success in the city, they should be able to re-sign him at a favorable price, and having his contract wrapped up sooner than later will allow them to know what else they can afford moving forward.

In an interview with The Athletic earlier this month, Perron seemed to hint that an extension could be in the works. He said that he respected Armstrong for keeping things private, so he didn’t want to say too much, “but it’s something that would be great, and would make sense. That’s all I’ll say.”

‘I wanted to punch walls’: Blues winger David Perron on his playoff quarantine, his future with the team and more https://t.co/VyO2olQvlE #stlblues

— Jeremy Rutherford (@jprutherford) June 3, 2021

7. A roster spot is left open for Klim Kostin

If the Blues don’t give Klim Kostin a chance to make the roster in training camp next season, they’re never going to give him a chance. His stock has never been higher after winning a Gagarin Cup in the KHL, and during his time in the organization, the need has never been greater.

After Kostin came over from Russia and played in the Blues’ final two regular-season games this season, it was disappointing for many fans that he didn’t get a chance to suit up in the playoffs. Some feared that Kostin wouldn’t respond too well to that, and perhaps he didn’t, but sources say he’s aware of the opportunity that lies ahead in 2021-22.

But there’s a difference between saying in May that a player will have an opportunity to make the team next season and then sticking to it in September. The Blues should be applauded for going into last year’s training camp with the intent of giving Jordan Kyrou a chance in the top nine and sticking with it. That paid off, with Kyrou netting 14 goals and 35 points in 55 games.

That faith doesn’t always pay off, but with as much as the Blues have invested in Kostin, their 2017 first-round pick, it’s time to see what he can do, and creating that mindset begins now.

8. The Kraken pick an expendable player

In my latest Blues’ mock protected list for the Seattle expansion draft (July 21), I protected forwards Sundqvist, Perron, Kyrou, Ryan O’Reilly, Brayden Schenn, Vladimir Tarasenko andRobert Thomas, defensem*n Parayko, Justin Faulk and Torey Krug, and goalie Jordan Binnington.

If that’s the list the Blues go with, the players who would then be eligible for selection (in the order of the most likely to be taken) are Vince Dunn, Ivan Barbashev, Niko Mikkola, Blais and Sanford.

The Blues are likely to lose a good player, but with Kyrou emerging and Kostin ready, it appears they could more easily overcome a loss in the forward group. If Seattle takes Dunn, for example, it could be a problem for a team that is still figuring out what it has in Mikkola and has yet to see Perunovich play.

This will probably prevent any trades that are unrelated to the expansion draft prior to July 21. For example, what if the Blues were to deal Dunn for a high draft pick and then the Kraken took Mikkola? They’d be down two defensem*n and only have a pick to show for it.

St. Louis Blues protected list: Who’s staying and who could be picked in the Seattle Kraken expansion draft? #stlblues https://t.co/7A4ffGTgoX

— Jeremy Rutherford (@jprutherford) June 10, 2021

9. RFAs sign reasonable contracts — then outplay them

The Blues have six restricted free agents in Sanford, Barbashev, Kyrou, Dunn, Thomas and Dakota Joshua. Of those six, only Kyrou has a case for a raise, and he doesn’t have arbitration rights this summer.

That’s good news for Blues assistant general manager Ryan Miller, who specializes in dealing with the cap, because he should be able to fit everyone in. However, the club doesn’t want the trend of players not earning raises to continue because it needs them to produce.

At the top of that list is Thomas, the No. 20 pick in 2017, who recently wrapped up the final year of his entry-level deal. He has had a cap hit of about $900,000 and has been a decent contributor with 22 goals and 87 points in 169 regular-season games.

The Blues should be able to re-sign Thomas, who had just three goals and 12 points in 33 games during an injury-riddled season, fairly cheap this summer. But in order for that to play out well for the Blues, they’re going to need the center to be healthy and produce beyond his salary in 2021-22.

10. The No. 16 pick becomes a trade chip or good player

Thanks to the Montreal Canadiens, the Blues have climbed up the NHL Draft order a bit. By virtue of the Habs’ two series wins, the Blues will now select No. 16 overall at the draft on July 23 and 24.

If Armstrong makes a trade this offseason to keep the championship window open, his history has shown that he’s willing to package the team’s first-round pick, like he did to acquire Schenn, O’Reilly, etc. He’s also used first-round picks on players such as Tage Thompson (2016) and Dominik Bokk (2018) and included them in trades for O’Reilly and Faulk, respectively.

If Armstrong keeps the pick, it will mark the highest the Blues have selected since 2010, when they took Schwartz (No. 14 overall) and Tarasenko (No. 16 overall). On Tuesday, The Athletic’s Corey Pronman published his 2021 NHL Draft prospect rankings, and the No. 16 player on his board is KHL defenseman Kirill Kirsanov (6-1, 198).

Pronman describes Kirsanov as “an interesting player because he’s a well-rounded but boring player.”

Well, at least the Blues’ offseason doesn’t project to be boring.

(Top photo: Scott Rovak / NHLI via Getty Images)